Now the right-leaning Gallup poll has President Obama ahead with a sustained lead.
For the first time since April, President Obama has opened up a sustained lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Gallup’s daily tracking poll of the presidential race.
Obama leads Romney 48%-44% in the poll, marking the sixth consecutive day in which the poll has showed him with a small, but statistically meaningful lead. The shift comes after almost two months in which the two candidates were essentially tied in the poll’s results.
The uptick for Obama started before the Supreme Court’s ruling upholding most parts of Obama’s healthcare ruling. The ruling, itself, does not appear to have had an impact on the shape of the race. Democratic strategists believe that the Obama campaign’s repeated attacks on Romney’s business record, particularly the involvement of his company, Bain Capital, in “offshoring” of jobs, has begun to connect with voters.
The results are particularly notable because many polling analysts believe that Gallup’s methods for analyzing its nightly surveys slightly under-represents the number of minority voters and, therefore, understates Obama’s support by a couple of points.