I hereby formally and officially endorse Newt Gingrich for the Republican nomination. And here's why I'm so excited to endorse him:
As he prepares for his third State of the Union address--and, he hopes, not his last--Barack Obama's likelihood of reelection has soared in the last few days to 56.8 percent, the highest it has been since last July. This movement is correlates with Newt Gingrich's increased likelihood of gaining the Republican nomination, now at 29.7 percent, up from about 5 percent. But, this upward trend is also correlates with a simultaneous downward movement of Mitt Romney's likelihood of winning the presidency if he wins the nomination, now at 44.0, down from about 48 percent. We utilize prediction market data for these likelihoods.
Likelihoods from 2012 Presidential Election
Sources: Betfair and Intrade
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